Indeed, after nearly 40 years of commercial production encompassing two distinct phases of growth, the industry is now poised for a third wave of development, one that could see production increasing more than twofold to five million barrels a day, or 16% of North American demand by 2030.
This increased production could generate an additional $40 billion of economic growth in Canada, create tens of thousands of new jobs across the country, and produce up to $90 billion in new investment over the next 30 years. To arrive at that point, however, we must plan for it. What we do today, sets the stage for tomorrow, raising the question: what is the best way forward? This roadmap helps set a course for oil sands industry growth by identifying issues and technology options to overcome challenges that stand in the way. As producers work toward this new vision, they will rely heavily on technology to grow a truly sustainable industry. To generate and maintain momentum in the oil sands industry, change will need to occur on a number of fronts: product diversity must be expanded, markets in North America and the Pacific Rim must be developed, sustainable development must be apparent in all aspects of operations, and economic wealth must be shared broadly across the country and more narrowly among those communities - aboriginal in particular - likely to be most affected by continued development. As production of conventional crudes and natural gas decline, and with the right mindset and technology, the oil sands is well positioned to provide a sustainable bridge between non- renewable fossil fuels and cleaner energy options for the future. Toward that end, it is intended that this Roadmap will drive a review of research and development already underway and facilitate the development of new technology in the years ahead. For each of the oil sands recovery and process steps, technology based sections of this report highlight opportunities for continuous improvement in the technologies employed today, and step-out advances that require longer lead times to develop to commercial application.