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TitleA crash programme scenario for the Canadian oil sands industry
Publication TypeJournal Article
Year of Publication2007
AuthorsSoderbergh, B., Robelius F., & Aleklett K.
Pagination16 pages
Date Published03/2007
PublisherEnergy Policy
Publication Languageeng
KeywordsCCS, CO2, economics, GHG, overview, planning

The report Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management, by Robert L. Hirsch et al., concludes that Peak Oil is going to happen and that worldwide large-scale mitigation efforts are necessary to avoid its possible devastating effects for the world economy. These efforts include accelerated production, referred to as crash programme production, from Canadas oil sands. The objective of this article is to investigate and analyse what production levels that might be reasonable to expect from a crash programme for the Canadian oil sands industry, within the time frame 2006-20 18 and 2006-2050. The implementation of a crash programme for the Canadian oil sands industry is associated with serious difficulties. There is not a large enough supply of natural gas to support a future Canadian oil sands industry with todays dependence on natural gas. It is possible to use bitumen as fuel and for upgrading, although it seems to be incompatible with Canadas obligations under the Kyoto treaty. For practical long-term high production, Canada must construct nuclear facilities to generate energy for the in situ projects. Even in a very optimistic scenario Canadas oil sands will not prevent Peak Oil. A short-term crash programme from the Canadian oil sands industry achieves about 3.6 mb/d by 2018. A long-term crash programme results in a production of approximately 5 mb/d by 2030.

Locational Keywords

Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR)

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