@article {54500,
	title = {Climate and water availability indicators in Canada: Challenges and a way forward. Part III {\textendash} Future scenarios},
	journal = {Canadian Water Resources Journal / Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques},
	volume = {40},
	year = {2015},
	month = {04/2015},
	pages = {12 pages },
	abstract = {Following from Parts I and II of this series (this issue), some common approaches for developing and assessing future scenarios of water availability are reviewed, along with recent case studies of Canadian watersheds. The results of future changes in drought related to climate change are influenced by the choice of indicators. For the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), small changes in drought frequency and severity are projected over southern Canada, reflecting the influence of increases in future annual precipitation only. However, assessments using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) reveal dramatic increases in the potential for future droughts since this indicator incorporates the combined influences of higher temperatures, soil moisture capacity and precipitation to estimate evapotranspiration. Regarding projected changes in runoff, watersheds in British Columbia tend to show increases in annual and winter runoff. Some watersheds show projected decreases in summer runoff. In the southern Prairies, most watersheds show projected decreases in annual and summer runoff. In Ontario and Quebec, results are mixed. Lake levels in the Great Lakes are projected to decline under most scenarios, but results differ between regional and global climate model-based scenarios due to differences in how lake evaporation is calculated. In New Brunswick, Labrador and northern Quebec, streamflow is projected to increase. Uncertainties in future projections emerge due to differences between climate scenario generating methods, and between hydrologic models used for the assessments. This paper concludes with some thoughts on addressing important research questions related to future scenarios of water availability in Canada. For scenario-based assessments, hydrologic model inter-comparisons might yield some useful insights into uncertainties in model structure that affect evaporation, evapotranspiration and snowmelt calculations. Scenarios developed for assessments should include both future climate and projected land use/cover changes and, where necessary, integration of potential reduction in glacier volume. Finally, as scenarios from regional climate models become more readily available, there may be more opportunity to explore how runoff projections could be applied to basin-scale routing models.},
	keywords = {Canadian watersheds, climate change, Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)},
	issn = {1918-1817},
	doi = {10.1080/07011784.2015.1006021},
	author = {Cohen, Stewart and Koshida, Grace and Mortsch, Linda}
}
