@article {54172,
	title = {Uncertainty-based modelling of soil chemical response to acidic deposition},
	year = {2011},
	note = {CEMA Contract No. 2011-0008 AWG},
	month = {08/2011},
	pages = {11 pages },
	institution = {Cumulative Environmental Management Association },
	address = {Fort McMurray, AB },
	abstract = {An analysis of weathering rate uncertainty was conducted with the PROFILE model to support the first uncertainty-based application of the Model of Acidification of Groundwater Catchments (MAGIC) in the region. In addition, the calibration and application of the Very Simple Dynamic (VSD) model was carried out to investigate the influence of different cation exchange models on dynamic simulations of soil chemistry. The primary outcomes of this research are summarized below: 1) Weathering rates exhibited large variability within the seven soil series investigated 2) Despite uncertainties in soil properties, Mildred and Firebag soils have consistently low weathering potential (maximum rates were below 0.4 keg ha-1yr-1) 3) An automated Monte-Carlo based application of MAGIC was developed for application to a single site (plot or polygon) 4) The uncertainty-based MAGIC framework has the capacity to predict the likelihood of base saturation and base cation to aluminium ratio reaching the critical thresholds specified under the Acid Deposition Management Framework 5) Comparison of VSD simulations conducted using Gaines-Thomas and Gapon soil-soil solution cation exchange models suggests a negligible influence of the exchange model on the frequency of critical threshold exceedence.},
	keywords = {acidity, air emissions, alkalinity, CEMA, model, modeling, pH, soil properties},
	author = {Whitfield, C. J. and Watmough, S. A. and Aherne, J.}
}
